While this is a great marker for Indiaโs digital payment revolution, is UPIโs rise a sustainable shift or a policy-driven anomaly?
Letโs look at the complexities beyond the headline numbers:
1. ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ โ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐
- UPI dominates in volume but lags in transaction value (~ INR 2K ticket size)
- Despite UPIโs growth, cash-in-circulation remains high (~14% of GDP)
2. ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ฑ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง?
- 75% of UPI transactions come from cities, while rural adoption lags
- Womenโs UPI usage is 30% lower than menโs (CGAP, 2023)
- Small vendors avoid UPI over GST fears (NCAER, 2024)
3. ๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ?
- UPI thrives in India due to JAM Trinity, which is hard to replicate abroad
- Visa/Mastercard still rule high-value / cross-border, and dominate credit
- Countries like Brazil (Pix) & Nigeria (eNaira) prefer local systems (IMF, 2024)
4. ๐๐ก๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐: ๐๐ฒ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง?
- Immediate future looks like a hybrid of UPI for P2P/small retail and cards for credit/cross-border
- Indiaโs digital rupee (eโน) may integrate with UPI (RBI, 2023)
๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ค๐๐๐ฐ๐๐ฒ๐ฌ:
โ UPI is a landmark digital public good, but remains reliant on state support.
โ ๏ธ True disruption requires solving profitability, inclusion gaps & global scale.
๐ฎ Will UPI evolve globally or remain a domestic success story?
Letโs discuss!
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