Author: Neil Borate
Profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/neil-borate-1a435a57/
Morgan Stanley's June 2027 Sensex forecast:
Worst case: 66,000 (-16% from current levels)
Base case: 89,000 (+14% from current), assigned 50% probability
Best case: 100,000 (+28% from current), assigned 25% probability
Three points worth noting:
The base case carries only 50% probability. That means half the time, by their own framework, the actual number lands outside their central estimate.
The spread between worst and best case is 34,000 points, roughly 43% of the current index level!
Basically they seem to be saying we don't know. Let's toss a coin & see where it lands.
Worst case: 66,000 (-16% from current levels)
Base case: 89,000 (+14% from current), assigned 50% probability
Best case: 100,000 (+28% from current), assigned 25% probability
Three points worth noting:
The base case carries only 50% probability. That means half the time, by their own framework, the actual number lands outside their central estimate.
The spread between worst and best case is 34,000 points, roughly 43% of the current index level!
Basically they seem to be saying we don't know. Let's toss a coin & see where it lands.
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