Blinkit MAU is 10mm as of Q2.
45% of it comes from Delhi, that's 4-5mm people.
Thats is about 20% of Delhi population.
Only 2% of people in India pay tax.
Where is this 18% extra MAU coming from?
Also if one takes YAU, this number balloons to about 30-40%.
It can only happen if Qcom has penetrated into lower middle-class households.
That posits a whole new analysis of Indian consumption and the ramifications in 15-20 years.
If this trend continues Blinkit can aspire to be the neighborhood Mother Dairy or Ration Store. I for see in 2 decades Qcom becoming the defacto PDS of Indian urban population as it trickles up to 1B.
With the amount of corruption that exists in PDS today, govt can easily transfer that to Blinkit and subsidize the delivery cost through graft savings. A lower middle-class household of 5 withdraws Ration amounting to 5k a month. Can be easily delivered via Qcom in one milk run a month.
I am sure no Bull Case Analyst have even dreamt along these lines.
An Axiom of this analysis is:
For Upper Middle Class and Rich Qcom is a necessity
For Middle and Lower Income households it is an aspirational lifestyle.
The ramifications are so radical that it might bring down the whole consumption market of metro cities and rebuild a new order.
An analogy of Qcom equivalence will then be railways/telecom (not retail or ecom) before flights were common in India. Those are the only commodities used by Rich, Middle Class and Poor albeit different classes and compartments similar to AOV spread in Qcom.
Note:
Also if you want to counter the argument, you are most welcome, but instead of projecting anecdotal conjectures please try to at least gauge what the quantification of your conjecture would look like.
This post was originally shared by Indradeep Banerjee on Linkedin.