A Banker's Notes: This doesn’t get much attention, but India's corporate bond bazaar is about to leapfrog into the nerve-centre of our growth machine.

And mind it, retail investors - not rating agencies - will pull the trigger here. Let me explain my thesis.

- You see, at ₹51.6 trillion outstanding, bonds already fund 18% of GDP in India

- Yet, they remain a dwarf beside China’s 36% and Korea’s 80%

But, SEBI’s 2024 rule-book shrank the minimum ticket for investing in bond of any kind from ₹1 lakh to ₹10,000 and introduced a voluntary “liquidity window” that lets savers sell paper back to issuers after 90 days.

And this comes at a very opportune time in India’s financialisation journey, as the household behaviour is already priming up.

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What do I mean by that?

Well, RBI data shows fixed deposits have ceded six percentage points of wallet-share in just 5yrs as equities and mutual funds soaked up the slack - a risk-appetite pivot that no policy can rewind.

Bonds add to that wagon as an investment product which is less volatile.

And, India’s fintechs have smelt the opportunity.

- Wint Wealth and Grip Invest have already been building this category

- And now, Groww is also reportedly applying for the Online Bond Platform Provider licence, piping corporate bonds straight into a swipe-to-buy checkout

Thus, the private-placement cartel is about to meet real-time price discovery.

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But, wait a sec. This is also great for founders and VCs in the Indian startup ecosystem.

Think this way. Every rupee that a late-stage startup or MSME can borrow at 9/12% instead of issuing flat-priced equity compounds founder ownership and pulls the IPO timeline forward by two years.

Also, thing this way. If UPI democratised payments and ONDC is unbundling commerce, mass-market bonds can finally democratise India’s cost of capital.

When millions of middle-class phones begin underwriting growth directly, the flywheel that powered Japan’s postal savings boom can restart here - this time digital, transparent and tradable.

What do you think? I have started to share my learnings as a VC more proactively, and would love to get inputs.

PS: Thoughts shared are personal, and not any investment/trading advisory/recommendation.

Best,
Devendra
| Dexter Capital Advisors


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